Dragonfly & Gravestone Doji Candlestick Patterns- A Rare But Highly Profitable Patterns!
Mar 10, 2010 Uncategorized
Candlestick Charting is one of the most powerful tools in the trading arsenal of any trader. Candlestick Charts apply to any market no matter what you trade-stocks, forex, futures, options, ETFs, commodities, bonds and others. With one simple glance on the chart, you can figure out the sentiment of the buyers and sellers in the market. There are many candlestick patterns that are used as trading signals. Some are simple while others are complex. Doji Candlestick Pattern is a simple pattern that is very easy to spot. It has no body. It is formed when the opening and the closing prices are the same. So, this pattern is all wicks with no stick. It literally looks like a Cross on the chart. So you can easily spot it. But it is very rare as the security opening and closing prices are seldom equal! Doji has some variations. We will discuss these variations in this article!
In other words, the opening and the closing prices should be the same for a Doji to be formed. So for a Doji to be truly formed on a trading day, throughtout the trading day heavy buying or selling may take place but at the end of the day, the price should be where it had been at the start. In other words, the opening and the closing prices should be the same for a Doji to be formed.
It is a signal that the battle between the bulls and the bears had been a draw during the trading day when a Doji is formed with the opening and the closing prices equal. Soon, either the bulls or the bears are going to previal. In other words, a trend reversal is about to take place.
A Dragonfly Doji pattern is unique in the sense that the opening, closing and the high prices are all the same or equal. A Dragonfly Doji is formed when the stocks opens, trades down during first part of the day. During some part of the day, the price starts to climb again and eventually closing on the high which is the same as the open.
When a Dragonfly Doji is formed, bears initially decide to rule the market. But at some point the bulls step in and decide to buy again. When the bulls step in, they start pushing the price up. As the bulls dominate the trading day, the security price ends up right where it had started.
The low on this pattern can be taken as the support level because this was the level at which the bears entered the market and started buying. Dragonfly Doji is considered to be a bullish candlestick pattern.
A bearish Gravestone Doji Pattern is formed when the open and close of the day is equal to the low of the day. This is the most bearish of the Doji patterns. A bearish Gravestone Doji pattern signals the start of a prolonged downtrend in the security price.
As said before, this pattern is rare but very easy to spot on the chart. When it does form, get ready for a trend change!
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Master these Candlestick Patterns with this 82 page PDF FREE Candlestick Guide! Get this 49 page Quantum Swing Trading Report plus the shocking Profit Button Report that applies no matter what you trade-stocks, forex, futures or options FREE!
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Before Short Selling-Know These Shocking Facts
Mar 9, 2010 Uncategorized
Short Selling Stocks is one of the favorite day or swing trading strategy. Many traders short stocks. Now many stock brokers make it very easy for the investors and traders to short stocks. Now a days, most of the trading is being done online. When you sell a stock, a message will ask you whether you are selling stocks that you own or you are selling short. With one click, you tell the broker that you are short selling. The broker than goes about and arranges the shares for you to short sell. These shares are a loan to your account.
Now, you cannot always short a stock instantly. Most of the investors work on rumors. In some cases,a stock gets so much shorted that there are no more shares of that stock left for you or your broker to borrow anymore. In that case, you simple will have to cross your fingers and see how the other short sellers do on that stock while you search for another stock to short!
Now, shorting is one of the favorite strategies employed by day traders. A day trader may short stock on the mundane reason like its price had been going up for three days and it’s time to come down! Day traders are not fundamental traders. Day traders are simply interested in the daily volatility in the stock. Most even don’t do any financial or fundamental analysis of the companies whose stocks they are trading. Almost all are technicians or what you call technical analysis experts.
Now, you cannot straight away short a stock as there are mechanisms in place employed by msot of the stock exchanges that don’t want a massive shorting attack on a stock. There is the famous Uptick Rule that has been put in place to prevent that from happening. What the Uptick Rule means is that you cannot short a stock unless it moves up on the last trade. This rule has been placed to prevent a stock from being driven down to almost zero by short sellers. In simple words, once the stock starts to move down, you cannot short it. You will have to wait for its price to move up on the last trade, before your short selling order can be executed by the broker.
Now you have to be careful when shorting a stock as certain risks are involved. In theory, there is no limit on how high a stock price can go high. So when betting on something going wrong, if you yourself go wrong, the potential loss in case of a stock price going up can be immense.
There is something known as Short Squeeze. A short squeeze happens when the stock of the company that you have shorted has some good news that drives the stock prices high. Now if this happens, many short sellers might lose money and even get margin calls. When they get desperate to buy back the stock, its prices go even higher hurting them more.
If you have already shorted that stock, you might get a call from your broker to return that stock immediately. In such a case, you will have to immediately return the stock even if it doesn’t make any sense to you!As said before, companies, investors and many brokers hate short sellers. They think that short sellers had intentionally driven down the stock prices. So sometimes, they will spread rumors of good news to create a momentary short squeeze. Sometimes, a campaign will be started by the owners of a particular stock instructing their brokers not to loan out their stocks to short sellers.
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Candlestick Trading Patterns- The Hanging Man, the Hammer and the Spinning Top!
Mar 6, 2010 Uncategorized
Hanging Man and the Hammer are two different candlestick patterns. The patterns are not identical. Hanging Man is considered to be bearish and the Hammer is considered to be bullish.
How to spot the Hanging Man and the Hammer? These candlestick patterns are easy to spot on the chart. When you spot a very small candle body accompanied by a pretty long wick on the bottom, it is a Hanging Man if it appears at the top of the uptrend and it is a Hammer if it appears at the bottom of the downtrend.
Now, in most of the cases, you will also find a small wick on the top of the candle body. Now suppose, you find the Hammer or the Hanging Man. What you need is to look for the confirmation the next day!
Now suppose, you think that you have spotted the Hanging Man in an uptrend. Wait for the confirmation the next day with the opening price. If the opening price on the next day is less than the previous day’s close, you have a true Hanging Man. If not, then that was not a true Hanging Man.
Similarly, if you spot a Hammer at the bottom of a downtrend, you need to confirm it with the opening price on the following day. If the opening price on the next day is higher than the closing price on the last day, the Hammer formed was a true Hammer.
When you trade candlestick patterns, you need to look for the confirmation on the following day to confirm that the candlestick pattern formed was indeed true. Once you have the confirmation signal, you can safely trade on that candlestick pattern. If you cannot get the confirmation, you should ignore that pattern considering it to be false. Most of these candlestick patterns are ideally suited for the daily charts.
A Spinning Top is another candlestick pattern that reveals a tight battle between the bulls and the bears. Whenever, the battle between the bulls and the bears ends in a draw on a trading day, the following day, one side has to give in. When this happens an explosive move in one direction is highly likely.
Spinning tops appear much more frequently and are very easy to spot with a very small body in the middle of the candlestick and almost equal wicks on the two sides. A spinning top is a nice indication that the trend is about to change direction. Knowing about a trend change early is a highly profitable trading signal.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Get this 49 page Quantum Swing Trading Report FREE. Master Candlestick Charting with this 82 page PDF FREE Candlestick Guide!
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Spot Trading Gold On Forex Shocking Secrets
Mar 5, 2010 Uncategorized
Have you ever given a gold ring to your friend as a token of your true love? Gold has been the most precious metal from the dawn of civilization. It is still considered to be the ultimate currency and the ultimate store of value in times of political uncertainity. For the last ten years, the gold market is in a secular uptrend with the spot prices having recently breached the historical barrier of $1,200 per troy ounce. After that there was a retracement and the prices did come down to around $1,100 per ounce but this uptrend is expected to continue for sometime.
In the last decade, many investors turned towards forex after the historic crash in the stock market. Many small investors lost more than 60-70% of their saving accounts in the stock market crash. Now, forex is a great money making opportunity. It is being said that forex trading will make many millionaires in this decade.
Many people don’t know this that you can trade gold on forex too. Many forex broker platforms that you use to trade forex, allow trading of gold and silver against the US Dollar (USD) from the same platform. Both these precious metals have high demand in the industrial sector and as the global economy recovers from the recession, the prices of gold and silver are expected to skyrockets as industrial production picks up and consumers start buying again. When you trade a currency pair, you go long on one currency and short on the other. In other words, you simply buy one and sell the other.
There are many currency pairs that you can trade like the GBPUSD, EURUSD, UADUSD, NZDUSD, JPYUSD. Spot trading gold on forex is almost similar with gold replacing one currency in the pair and the other currency is always USD. In case of spot gold trading on forex, you trade one ounce of gold in the spot market againt US Dollar (USD). So just like when you trade a currency pair, when you trade gold on forex, you are taking either a long or a short position in gold against USD.
Now, suppoe the price quote in the spot market is 1100 XAUUSD. What this means is that one troy ounce of gold in the spot market right now is equal to $1,100 USD. So, in spot gold trading on forex, you are trading one troy ounce of gold against USD. Interestingly the symbol for this is also XAUUSD with XAU representing one ounce of gold.
Just like any currency pairs, stock or for that matter any security, the price quote in the spot gold market has got a bid-ask spread. Suppose the price quote in the spot market is 1110/1115. This means is that you can buy one ounce of gold at a rate of $1,115 and sell one ounce at the rate of $1,110 to your broker. Now, spot gold trading on forex is a fast moving market. Due to the fast moving nature of the spot gold market, the spread keeps on changing throughout the day!
Now a standard lot in currency trading is equal to $100,000. But in case of gold on forex, a standard lot is equal to 10 troy ounces of gold. So, if you find the price quote to be 1112/1117 and you are interested in going long. In that case you will have to buy 1 lot of gold that is equal to $11,170. Spot gold market is a fast moving market and the price quotes keep on changing. So, suppose just after 60 minutes, you find the quote to be 1120/1126. You see a profit and decide to get out selling at $11,200 making a profit of $30. Now if you had used leverage, you would have needed a much lower initial investment to make a profit of $30 in just 60 minutes.
Gold and USD have an inverse correlation relationship. What this means is that the gold prices and USD move in opposite direction in the long term. This inverse relationship may not hold in the short term. But if you are a trend trader or a position trader, you can hedge your position in currency pairs that have correlation with gold prices by taking opposite positions in the spot gold on forex market.
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ETF Options Investing Secrets
Mar 1, 2010 wealth building
You must have traded ETFs. No, then let me first introduce you to ETFs. ETF is the short acronym for Exchange Traded Funds. ETF are a basket of stocks or other assets that have been designed to closely track a stock index, a market index, sector index or any other index. Now trading stock indexes is what many trader do. You can trade stock indexes with options. However, trading ETF Options can be a more profitable venture for you!
Now trading ETF Options is somewhat different than trading Index Options. Though both track almost similar indexes but Index Options are settled in cash at expiry. On the other hand, ETF Options are settled with the underlying instruments that is shares of ETFs. This gives you the chance to use various combination strategies with ETF Options that you cannot normally use with Index Options.
Index and ETFs both get affected by the dividends paid by the underlying stocks. So if you use options on them, these dividends on the underlying stocks should be incorporated into the puts and calls by using an options calculator.
Now, ETF Options are more flexible than the Index Options as you can use the underlying ETF as well in your options strategies. If you have already traded stock options, ETF options should not be difficult for you. You can hedge your ETF position with an option on the ETF.
Using Protective Put Strategy by combining long ETF with a long put can hedge against the downside risk limiting it to the put strike price with a slightly increased cost for the ETF.
In the same way, you can use the covered call on an ETF with a long ETF and a short call. The short call reduces the cost of the position and slightly reduces the risk as well. However, a covered call limits the upside profit potential to the call strike price.
How about a Collared Position. This is another combination strategy that you can use with an ETF is forming a Collared Position. A Collared Position is formed with a long ETF and a long put combined with a short call. The premium paid in taking a long put position is offset somewhat by the premium that you get by writing a call. A Collared Position limits the limited but high risk to a limited risk only. The downside risk is now only limited to the put strike price.
Options trading is risky in the sense that it has both time volatility as well as price volatility. Now, many traders trade options without getting good options trading education. What you need to do is first paper trade these strategies and master them. This way you will learn how to deal with unexpected risk.
An important fact that you need to know is that not all ETFs have options written on them. This should not surprise you as there are many stocks that don’t have options written on them. Another important fact that you should know is that ETF Options are always American Style. American Style options can be excercised anytime before expiry. You can even trade LEAP Options on ETFs. LEAP Options are long term options having expiry of more than nine months to less than two and a half years.
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How To Back Test Your Trading System? Know These Shocking Limitations!
Feb 27, 2010 wealth building
Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.
How to do backtesting? Backtesting uses historical data to test the performance of the trading system under the past market conditions. Using a backtesting software makes it very simple and easy.
There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!
In other words, no two trades work out in exact the same way twice. SO you have to be careful when looking at the back testing results and take it with a pinch of salt. However, there are still some advantages of back testing a trading system.
Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions. Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies.
For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!
Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.
There is no substitute for live trading results! To tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions.
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How Momentum Investing Can Make You Rich?
Feb 27, 2010 wealth building
There is a difference between trading and investing. Trading is always short term while investing is long term. The time horizon in trading can be as short as a few minutes to a few days to a few weeks. Whereas in investing, the time horizon can be months to years. Many people day trade or swing trade stocks, currencies, futures, options, ETFs, commodities or other markets. In day trading, a trader opens a position and closes it in the same day making a quick profit. In swing trading, a trader tries to ride a trend in the market as long as it lasts. On the other hand, an investor is least pushed about the short term swings in the market. He or she has a long term time horizon like a few months to even a few years. This long time horizon matches their investment and financial goals!
Investors in theory can wait for a long time to see their stock pick to play out. A company’s stock may be ridiculously cheap. But it may stay like that for a long time before it catches everyone else’s attention and the price is bid up. It might be good for investors to learn a few tricks from traders especially day trading that can help them make a few quick bucks.
There is a general problem with so many investors. They fall in love with their investment after doing so much research and committing so much time for the position to work. Now, day traders are always hit and run types. They have developed an innate sense of discipline among themselves that teaches them when to commit money to a trade and when to cut and run. So, many investors when they fall in love with their investments on the long run forget this cardinal rule of trading that you have to cut your losses. Market least care who you are and how long you have been in it.
When, there is momentum behind a security, it means that it’s price will continue to icnrease as long as it has got momentum. This way by investing in stocks having momentum behind them, you avoid the risk of getting stuck in stocks that might not move for months and months.
When a security goes up in price with a strong demand underneath it, it said to have price momentum behind it! Now, as a long term investor, you should look for securities having momentum behind them just to avoid getting stuck with securities for months before they start moving. It pays to be patient. But it works even better when the money that you invested works for you while you wait.
How to you find that a security has got momentum behind it? You can use these technical indicators like the MACD ( Moving Average Convergence and Divergence), RSI (Relative Strength Index) or the Stochastic. A swing trader is also looking to ride a trend as long as it lasts. A trend lasts as long as it has got momentum behind it. Momentum investing is similar to swing trading.
Momentum investing can also lead to bubbles like that happened in the dot com bubble in the last few years of 1990s. It is always a good idea to do some fundamental research on the companies before doing momentum investing.
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Making Your Real Property Sale Work Out
Feb 4, 2010 wealth building
The real estate market is really slow and finding a qualified buyer that banks will lend to can be very tough, so to beat this homeowners should think about loaning out their own equity to facilitate financing for approved buyers. Why, you ask?
Let us just say, for this example, you have sold a property that you have fifty thousands dollars in equity in. With equity, you will want to make sure that you protect your profits by shielding your gains from taxes as much as you can. There is always the usual income tax and certain local taxes that may apply, but larger, more burdensome taxes may also apply. There are many rules that govern taxes like capital gains tax, so consulting with an accountant or other tax professional is really important in order to save your money and profits.
Taxes, overall limit the amount of motivation many potential business people have, so it makes you wonder why the government institutes such burdensome policies and regulations. Banks make money by loaning money, and you can do that same thing by taking back a note on the property you are selling, increasing potential buyers by doing that. Whatever you do, make sure you are the primary lien on the property or else you will be assuming a higher degree of risk, and may be left out in the cold if the homeowner cannot pay for the home.
With a solid lien position, you have a certain amount of control over your destiny, in regard to the property you are loaning on. If the buyer does get behind on payments, you simply go to them personally and express some empathy for them, then offer to take the property back through a deed in lieu of foreclosure. Processing a foreclosure completely is expensive and ruins the homeowners credit, but signing the house back to you avoids one and allows to you iron out the problem. Finding a renter is easy so renting to the homeowner or not, is not a problem, but make sure you can sell it when you find another buyer for it. Buying a home is on the forefront of many minds, so loaning out your money on it again is not too difficult.
Loaning your money out again will do a lot of positive things, including helping your next buyer improve their credit history, and bring you a nice chunk of change as you go along. The homeowner may even eventually refinance you out of your lien position altogether.
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Residential Real Estate The Place To Start
Dec 19, 2009 wealth building
When first starting out with real estate investing, it is wise to start with residential property. You will be more familiar with this type of property compared to the other types. You will be able to know if the home is messing vital rooms or parts such as the front room or the kitchen. With commercial property, you may not be so familiar with the essential areas so you will not know what to look for or what potential buyers require.
Commercial real estate has its own complexities whether it is retail, office space, or industrial real estate. You have different types of business contracts that are different and more detailed compared to residential real estate. Residential real estate includes single-family dwellings, condominiums, duplexes, town houses, and apartments. With each type of residential real estate, you will be dealing with tenants. Realize the tenants can call you at anytime to complain about the residence. Tenants generally do not care about the residence’s condition only when things are not working properly. Dealing with tenants requires having good people skills as well as knowledge about the type of investment.
The key to dealing with residential property, you want to have a low vacancy rate with your properties. Generally, you will not have to worry about the vacancy rate unless you have your rent amounts set too high or the property is unappealing to potential tenants.
However, there are some good points to think about when it comes to investing in residential properties. Banks are normally open to lending out up to 90% on residential properties as opposed to commercial properties banks normally only lend out about 70% of the initial funds.
Residential properties will continue to pay for themselves. You will consistently have tenants in your dwelling, which means you will always have an extra source of income coming in every single month. However, the biggest drawback that comes into the picture when you are investing in residential properties is the fact that you will take on the role of a landlord. You will be responsible for all repairs as well as maintenance that has to be done on the home while a tenant is occupying it.
It is wise to remember that investing in any type of property requires work and can be a full time job yet the long-term gains are great.
Learn more about how to find investment properties and finding your first few rental investment properties.
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Green Energy Stocks Investing
Dec 7, 2009 wealth building
Do you know China is the largest producer of coal? Coal production n China would peak somewhere around 2010-2020. Are you aware of the fact that the peak of the global oil production (all liquids, including unconventional oil) will peak in the next few years.
The global peak of uranium production lies somewhere around2025-2050. The global peak of natural gas production lies somewhere around 2025! You must be thinking what to do every available source of energy seems to be peaking in the near future?
But there are many safe and environmentally friendly methods to generate the energy required. Uptill now these methods had been ignored maybe because they were a bit expensive. They were expensive in the sense that these methods factor in the external costs that were previously being ignored. Do you know this fact that the US Department of Energy has estimated that there is enough available offshore wind energy of the coasts of US that can nearly cover the current US electricity capacity? So what will fill this void in energy production in the coming decades?
With introduction of energy saving technology in the fluorescent lamps and bulbs, a lot of energy can be saved. If every bulb in the US was replaced with an energy efficient fluorescent lamp, enough energy could be saved to shut down around 100 power plants. If all the care in US were hybrids by 2025 that would roughly reduce 80% of the US oil import.
The solution is already there and as the end of fossil fuel nears which is only a decade away, more and more alternative energy solutions will be used to generate cheap energy. Enough power could be generated for the entire US by covering only 9% of Nevada desert with parabolic trough systems. This is something like a plot of land 100 by 100 miles.
This is something that is bound to happen. The supplies of fossil fuel are finite and will be exhausted in the near future. You might have seen only a glimpse of that last year in 2008 when crude oil prices jumped to around $150 per barrel.
Oil deposits are being depleted at a fast pace and these resources once finished cannot be replenished. This prediction is based on our insatiable energy consumption and the lack of conventional supplies to meet the growing energy demand. This is most probably the safest long term bet that you can make in the long term. There is little doubt that companies operating in the green energy sector will ultimately become the major players in the overall energy generation and transportation mix of tomorrow.
Keeping in view the above facts, investing in green energy stocks in the best long term investment that you can make! Imagine Henry Ford in’09 asking you to invest in his Ford Motor Company that is about to mass produce a horseless carriage.
He tells you that this invention could change the entire landscape of the country. Knowing everything that you know right now with the power of hind sight with you, you will definitely say yes. But many folks in that year of’09 were skeptical about Model T success. This is now 2009, exactly a century has passed. Do you think investing in green energy stocks is a bad idea?
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