Posts Tagged ‘options’

Before Short Selling-Know These Shocking Facts

Mar 9, 2010 Uncategorized

Short Selling Stocks is one of the favorite day or swing trading strategy. Many traders short stocks. Now many stock brokers make it very easy for the investors and traders to short stocks. Now a days, most of the trading is being done online. When you sell a stock, a message will ask you whether you are selling stocks that you own or you are selling short. With one click, you tell the broker that you are short selling. The broker than goes about and arranges the shares for you to short sell. These shares are a loan to your account.

Now, you cannot always short a stock instantly. Most of the investors work on rumors. In some cases,a stock gets so much shorted that there are no more shares of that stock left for you or your broker to borrow anymore. In that case, you simple will have to cross your fingers and see how the other short sellers do on that stock while you search for another stock to short!

Now, shorting is one of the favorite strategies employed by day traders. A day trader may short stock on the mundane reason like its price had been going up for three days and it’s time to come down! Day traders are not fundamental traders. Day traders are simply interested in the daily volatility in the stock. Most even don’t do any financial or fundamental analysis of the companies whose stocks they are trading. Almost all are technicians or what you call technical analysis experts.

Now, you cannot straight away short a stock as there are mechanisms in place employed by msot of the stock exchanges that don’t want a massive shorting attack on a stock. There is the famous Uptick Rule that has been put in place to prevent that from happening. What the Uptick Rule means is that you cannot short a stock unless it moves up on the last trade. This rule has been placed to prevent a stock from being driven down to almost zero by short sellers. In simple words, once the stock starts to move down, you cannot short it. You will have to wait for its price to move up on the last trade, before your short selling order can be executed by the broker.

Now you have to be careful when shorting a stock as certain risks are involved. In theory, there is no limit on how high a stock price can go high. So when betting on something going wrong, if you yourself go wrong, the potential loss in case of a stock price going up can be immense.

There is something known as Short Squeeze. A short squeeze happens when the stock of the company that you have shorted has some good news that drives the stock prices high. Now if this happens, many short sellers might lose money and even get margin calls. When they get desperate to buy back the stock, its prices go even higher hurting them more.

If you have already shorted that stock, you might get a call from your broker to return that stock immediately. In such a case, you will have to immediately return the stock even if it doesn’t make any sense to you!As said before, companies, investors and many brokers hate short sellers. They think that short sellers had intentionally driven down the stock prices. So sometimes, they will spread rumors of good news to create a momentary short squeeze. Sometimes, a campaign will be started by the owners of a particular stock instructing their brokers not to loan out their stocks to short sellers.

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Candlestick Trading Patterns- The Hanging Man, the Hammer and the Spinning Top!

Mar 6, 2010 Uncategorized

Hanging Man and the Hammer are two different candlestick patterns. The patterns are not identical. Hanging Man is considered to be bearish and the Hammer is considered to be bullish.

How to spot the Hanging Man and the Hammer? These candlestick patterns are easy to spot on the chart. When you spot a very small candle body accompanied by a pretty long wick on the bottom, it is a Hanging Man if it appears at the top of the uptrend and it is a Hammer if it appears at the bottom of the downtrend.

Now, in most of the cases, you will also find a small wick on the top of the candle body. Now suppose, you find the Hammer or the Hanging Man. What you need is to look for the confirmation the next day!

Now suppose, you think that you have spotted the Hanging Man in an uptrend. Wait for the confirmation the next day with the opening price. If the opening price on the next day is less than the previous day’s close, you have a true Hanging Man. If not, then that was not a true Hanging Man.

Similarly, if you spot a Hammer at the bottom of a downtrend, you need to confirm it with the opening price on the following day. If the opening price on the next day is higher than the closing price on the last day, the Hammer formed was a true Hammer.

When you trade candlestick patterns, you need to look for the confirmation on the following day to confirm that the candlestick pattern formed was indeed true. Once you have the confirmation signal, you can safely trade on that candlestick pattern. If you cannot get the confirmation, you should ignore that pattern considering it to be false. Most of these candlestick patterns are ideally suited for the daily charts.

A Spinning Top is another candlestick pattern that reveals a tight battle between the bulls and the bears. Whenever, the battle between the bulls and the bears ends in a draw on a trading day, the following day, one side has to give in. When this happens an explosive move in one direction is highly likely.

Spinning tops appear much more frequently and are very easy to spot with a very small body in the middle of the candlestick and almost equal wicks on the two sides. A spinning top is a nice indication that the trend is about to change direction. Knowing about a trend change early is a highly profitable trading signal.

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ETF Options Investing Secrets

Mar 1, 2010 wealth building

You must have traded ETFs. No, then let me first introduce you to ETFs. ETF is the short acronym for Exchange Traded Funds. ETF are a basket of stocks or other assets that have been designed to closely track a stock index, a market index, sector index or any other index. Now trading stock indexes is what many trader do. You can trade stock indexes with options. However, trading ETF Options can be a more profitable venture for you!

Now trading ETF Options is somewhat different than trading Index Options. Though both track almost similar indexes but Index Options are settled in cash at expiry. On the other hand, ETF Options are settled with the underlying instruments that is shares of ETFs. This gives you the chance to use various combination strategies with ETF Options that you cannot normally use with Index Options.

Index and ETFs both get affected by the dividends paid by the underlying stocks. So if you use options on them, these dividends on the underlying stocks should be incorporated into the puts and calls by using an options calculator.

Now, ETF Options are more flexible than the Index Options as you can use the underlying ETF as well in your options strategies. If you have already traded stock options, ETF options should not be difficult for you. You can hedge your ETF position with an option on the ETF.

Using Protective Put Strategy by combining long ETF with a long put can hedge against the downside risk limiting it to the put strike price with a slightly increased cost for the ETF.

In the same way, you can use the covered call on an ETF with a long ETF and a short call. The short call reduces the cost of the position and slightly reduces the risk as well. However, a covered call limits the upside profit potential to the call strike price.

How about a Collared Position. This is another combination strategy that you can use with an ETF is forming a Collared Position. A Collared Position is formed with a long ETF and a long put combined with a short call. The premium paid in taking a long put position is offset somewhat by the premium that you get by writing a call. A Collared Position limits the limited but high risk to a limited risk only. The downside risk is now only limited to the put strike price.

Options trading is risky in the sense that it has both time volatility as well as price volatility. Now, many traders trade options without getting good options trading education. What you need to do is first paper trade these strategies and master them. This way you will learn how to deal with unexpected risk.

An important fact that you need to know is that not all ETFs have options written on them. This should not surprise you as there are many stocks that don’t have options written on them. Another important fact that you should know is that ETF Options are always American Style. American Style options can be excercised anytime before expiry. You can even trade LEAP Options on ETFs. LEAP Options are long term options having expiry of more than nine months to less than two and a half years.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Get this 52 page ETF Trading Guide FREE! Read this shocking FREE 49 page Quantum Swing Trading Report.

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How To Back Test Your Trading System? Know These Shocking Limitations!

Feb 27, 2010 wealth building

Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.

How to do backtesting? Backtesting uses historical data to test the performance of the trading system under the past market conditions. Using a backtesting software makes it very simple and easy.

There are many problems with historical data. There is no slippage in backtesting. Slippage is one of the most important problem that a trader faces while trading live. The other problem that the backtest ignores is the widening of spreads under volatile market conditions. So backtesting results are no guarantee that the trading system will perform well under live market conditions. Things that worked in the past might not work now. Similarly something that didn’t work in the past, may work now! You never know!

In other words, no two trades work out in exact the same way twice. SO you have to be careful when looking at the back testing results and take it with a pinch of salt. However, there are still some advantages of back testing a trading system.

Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions. Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies.

For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!

Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.

There is no substitute for live trading results! To tell you the truth, backtesting can only give you a rough guess about the performance of the trading system under live trading conditions.

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How Momentum Investing Can Make You Rich?

Feb 27, 2010 wealth building

There is a difference between trading and investing. Trading is always short term while investing is long term. The time horizon in trading can be as short as a few minutes to a few days to a few weeks. Whereas in investing, the time horizon can be months to years. Many people day trade or swing trade stocks, currencies, futures, options, ETFs, commodities or other markets. In day trading, a trader opens a position and closes it in the same day making a quick profit. In swing trading, a trader tries to ride a trend in the market as long as it lasts. On the other hand, an investor is least pushed about the short term swings in the market. He or she has a long term time horizon like a few months to even a few years. This long time horizon matches their investment and financial goals!

Investors in theory can wait for a long time to see their stock pick to play out. A company’s stock may be ridiculously cheap. But it may stay like that for a long time before it catches everyone else’s attention and the price is bid up. It might be good for investors to learn a few tricks from traders especially day trading that can help them make a few quick bucks.

There is a general problem with so many investors. They fall in love with their investment after doing so much research and committing so much time for the position to work. Now, day traders are always hit and run types. They have developed an innate sense of discipline among themselves that teaches them when to commit money to a trade and when to cut and run. So, many investors when they fall in love with their investments on the long run forget this cardinal rule of trading that you have to cut your losses. Market least care who you are and how long you have been in it.

When, there is momentum behind a security, it means that it’s price will continue to icnrease as long as it has got momentum. This way by investing in stocks having momentum behind them, you avoid the risk of getting stuck in stocks that might not move for months and months.

When a security goes up in price with a strong demand underneath it, it said to have price momentum behind it! Now, as a long term investor, you should look for securities having momentum behind them just to avoid getting stuck with securities for months before they start moving. It pays to be patient. But it works even better when the money that you invested works for you while you wait.

How to you find that a security has got momentum behind it? You can use these technical indicators like the MACD ( Moving Average Convergence and Divergence), RSI (Relative Strength Index) or the Stochastic. A swing trader is also looking to ride a trend as long as it lasts. A trend lasts as long as it has got momentum behind it. Momentum investing is similar to swing trading.

Momentum investing can also lead to bubbles like that happened in the dot com bubble in the last few years of 1990s. It is always a good idea to do some fundamental research on the companies before doing momentum investing.

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Short ETFs

Nov 23, 2009 wealth building

You can short stocks. You can even short ETFs. Have you ever heard of Short ETFs? The ProShares Short Dow 30 ETF (DOG) will return the inverse of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on daily basis. If the DJIA falls by 2%, DOG rises by 2% and if the DJIA rises by 2%, DOG will fall by 2%. Short ETF returns the inverse of the index it is linked to.

ETFs are the most popular investing tool these days. They are a hybrid between the stocks and mutual funds. They give you the benefits of mutual funds without the high loads. They trade like stocks. During the past few years, the number of Short ETFs has risen dramatically. Short ETFs not only cover the major stock indices like the S&P 500 or the DJIA but also different sectors like the energy, utilities or technology. You will even find Inverse ETFs on currencies now. Short ETFs are also known as Inverse ETFs or Bear ETFs.

Most of the ETFs are designed around some market index. ETF shares trade like ordinary stock shares. You can buy them. You can sell them unlike the mutual funds that can only be sold at the end of the day. The ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 ETF (DXD) rises 2% when the DJIA falls by 1%. So you can even find leverage short ETFs. A leveraged short ETF gives the trader leverage without the use of margins.

Over the years, short ETFs have risen in popularity with the investors and hedge funds. Short ETFs give you an excellent opportunity to profit from the volatility in the market and the major indices.

Before the introduction of short ETFs, a trader had to actually short sell stocks to take advantage of a market drop. Short ETFs are a great product as they have created new opportunities for traders.

Traders are not allowed to sell short stocks or ETFs in their retirement accounts. In the past if the market was dropping, the trader had to go against the trend and buy or else move into cash or fixed income. Short and leveraged ETFs provide traders with new opportunities.

China is one example that garners a lot of attention. The Shanghai Index in China rose 100% in 2007. In the first quarter of 2008, the Shanghai Index was down 35%. ETFs also provide you with the opportunity to take advantage of the global market swings.

The ProShares family of ETFs introduced the Ultrashort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF (FXP). Now if you want to trade the fall of Chinese stocks, you can trade FXP ETF. In the past, traders who wanted to benefit from the fall of Chinese stocks could only short Chinese stocks that were traded in US Stock Exchanges.

Assume you have a portfolio of $100,000 composed of 75% stocks and 25% money market fixed income. As a long term investor you can take advantage of short ETFs to hedge your portfolio position.

The forecast of the market for the next six months is not good. But you are reluctant to sell your stocks due to tax reasons. Suppose the market falls by 10%. Your stock portfolio falls by 7.5% assuming the same ratio between the market and your portfolio.

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What Are LEAP Options?

Nov 20, 2009 wealth building

One person who made history with options was George Soros who is famously known as the man who broke the Bank of England. Great Britain was finding it difficult to stay within the tight exchange rate band set by the European Monetary Union (EMU).

George Soros is a famous name in the world of investing. He had always believed in contrarian investing. Contrarian investing means doing exactly opposite of what the crowd is doing. George Soros had this intuition that the Bank of England would be forced to devalue British Pound. So he bought call options on German Marks and put options on British Pound. He made a bet of $10 Billion by leveraging all the assets in his hedge fund.

Bank of England had made a number of public statements regarding its intention of staying within the EMU. When George Soros made his bet on the intrinsic weakness of British Pound, other currency speculators followed suit and placed their bets too. This build up an immense selling pressure on the British Pound! Bank of England was brought to its knees as it was unable to sustain the immense selling pressure on the British Pound within a few days of the speculative attack on the British Pound. Bank of England was forced to devalue British Pound in a few short days.

When you a strong intuition, you should go for the big kill. George Soros made a cool $1 Billion profit on his bet in a matter of a few days. Can you make such a bet? Maybe not but this one example show the immense power options have if used correctly. Options are risky; there should be no doubt about it.

Options contract give you the right to buy or sell an underlying security like stocks, futures, commodities or currencies at a price before a certain date. This price is known as the Strike Price. This date is known as the Expiry Date. However, in European Style options you can only buy or sell on the expiry date not before that. Most people who trade options lose money, plain and simple.

You need to learn the Options Greeks. Time factor is very important when valuing an option. Further out the options contract is from expiration, you will have to pay a higher premium. As the options contract approaches the expiration date and if it is out of money, it loses its value very fast.

LEAP options are basically long term options. Leap options can help you profit over the long haul. You can use LEAP options in options strategies like the covered calls, straddles, spreads and so on. LEAP stands for long term equity anticipation. It basically means that the option is much like the regular option except that the timeframe to expire is greater than 1 year.

LEAP options can be incredibly profitable if used correctly. However, LEAP options are risky because the option writer usually demands a hefty premium for taking on the long term risk. The buyer of the LEAP options has the right to exercise the option prior to expiration should the price of the underlying stock move in the money. Long timeframe means that the possibility of the LEAP options moving in the money is always high hence a high LEAP options premium.

Far away from expiration, the higher the value of the options contract! Closer the out of money option is to expiration, faster its value drops. What this means is that the buyer of the options loses the premium that was paid for getting the right to buy or sell the underlying security. LEAP options can be a great trading vehicle for swing traders as they mitigate some of the time decay that is inherent in short term options. If you need to learn options trading than you should consider joining the Live Options Mastery Classes online at the Options University. Learn options trading from a former options floor trader for safer and better investing!

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Learn Candlestick Charting! Know Fibonacci Retracement! Don’t reprint this exact article. Instead, reprint a free unique content version of this same article.

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Trading Systems (Part I)

Nov 19, 2009 wealth building

At one point in your trading career that might come soon rather than later, you would want to switch over to a mechanical trading system. Using a mechanical trading system not only helps traders to make decisions and increase profits but it also provides great psychological comfort to the traders.

You will also have to develop a systems approach to your trading. You will find most of the traders using a trading system approach to trading. You will realize the necessity of switching over to the system trade in order to lower the psychological pressure experienced when making every market transaction. Some of the traders may use a discrete trading system while others prefer a mechanical trading system. Trading without a system can be stressful.

The mechanical trading system set of rules may be translated into a computer program for automated trading. However, the mechanical trading system lacks fundamental analysis capacity.

The creator of such a mechanical trading system then becomes just another user of the trading system monitoring the computer generated signals. The trading system then generates trading signals that can be used by traders having access to the trading system.

These trading systems may be taken as grey and black boxes. Their prices might vary from a few hundred dollars to hundred of thousands of dollars. Many traders over their trading careers develop their own trading systems. Besides the traders using their own trading systems, there are now many actively developed trading systems for sale as computer programs.

The most significant thing about these programs is that the traders should be able to accomplish transactions in accordance with the signals generated by the trading system. Sometimes theses trading systems are developed for big banks and corporations.

However, it is very difficult for a mechanical trading system to cope with different market conditions. This is the most serious flaw in these trading systems. When the market conditions change, these trading systems start generating erroneous trading signals. Majority of the successful individual traders use self developed mechanical trading systems.

For example, many trading systems that are satisfactory in trending conditions become highly ineffective in nontrending environment. Change of market behavior leads to negative results from a previously effective trading system which obviously would require replacement.

Many trading systems now depend on complex mathematical formula which is not understandable by the trader if the trader is not the author of the trading system. The most common disadvantage of these trading systems is the negative balance between he profitable and unprofitable trades.

What you need is a forex trading system that is profitable in the long term. In other words, it gives more winner than losers. Obviously the trading system can only be profitable in the long run if the ratio of the profitable trades is higher than the non-profitable trades. In other words the average profit of each profitable transaction is greater than the average loss of each unprofitable transaction.

As a user of a mechanical trading system your options are limited. The trader must accurately and unconditionally follow the trading system without making any attempt to adjust it to the market conditions. Making correction in any mechanical trading system in the process of the trade is almost impossible until and unless you are the developer of that trading system. This is one of the reasons why you need to develop your own trading system.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Discover a Revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System. Read about a Forex Trading System with an ROI of 3000% per month.

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Stocks Short Selling

Nov 19, 2009 wealth building

An investor who is short selling is borrowing stocks from the brokers and selling them to another buyer. The sale money goes to the account of the investor. At some point, the investor has to buy back the stock ideally at a lower price to make profit and return it to the broker.

You must be proficient in using technical indicators if you want to become a trader. Without learning technical analysis, you will always be doing trading on your hunches which is a bad thing. Suppose you are using the RSI technical indicator that is giving a crossover sell signal. All signs are pointing towards at least a small pullback. You feel that the stock ABC is overvalued at $60 and at some point in the near future the market will make a correction.

You decide to short 1000 shares of stock ABC. So 1000 shares of stock ABC are sold by your broker at $60 and $60,000 is placed in your account. You had placed an order with your broker to short 1000 shares of ABC stock at $60. Over the next week, but now you are jittery as the stock ABC instead of going down climbs to $65.

However, you have catered for this eventuality by placing a stop loss at 10% of your account. This comes out to be $6,000. So the stop loss is not triggered and you are still in the market hoping for the price to stop going up.

Before entering a trade, you must always decide a loss level that you are comfortable with if the trade goes against you. You are prepared to lose $6,000 in anticipation of a stock price tumble as your technical indicators are giving you the sell signals. If the price goes up to $66, your stop loss will be triggered and you will be out of the market.

Now most earnings mishaps last a few days. So you wait and don’t cover your short position for the next few days. Suddenly on the release of a disappointing earnings report, the stock price tumbles 20% in one day.

Stock ABC price falls to $45, you decide to cover your short position. In order to close your position, you need to buy back the 100 shares of ABC that were sold short earlier at the market price of $45.

You pay $45,000 to buy back 1000 shares of stock ABC and return them to your broker. So your net profit in this case is $60,000-$45,000= $15,000. With this simple example, you should be able to understand the mechanics of short selling stocks.

In reality, you paid $45 per share to buy ABC stocks and sold them at $60 per share giving you a profit of $15 per share. Assume that you had bought the stocks for $45 per share and sold them at $60 per share, the same profit would have been made.

The goal is to sell it at a higher price but in the case of short selling stocks, selling takes place first instead of buying when you short a stock. The goal of buying a stock is to sell it at a higher price in the future. Do you want to try short selling now?

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Autotrading Exposed

Nov 16, 2009 wealth building

Many hedge funds and other entities that manage money through forex trading use some form of autotrading in their daily activities. Autotrading is common in the currency trading.

Previously these autotrading programs also known as Expert Advisors or Forex Robots were expensive costing like thousands of dollars and only wealthy individuals or big institutions like hedge funds could afford them.

Many private individual traders have also begun to adopt autotrading to execute their thoroughly backtested and highly optimized forex trading strategies. The recent advancement in computer programming has made it possible for professional forex traders to team up with a software expert to develop their own autotrading systems.

The recent advancement in computer programming has made these Expert Advisors cheap. The price of these Expert Advisors has come down to around a few hundreds that can be easily purchased by ordinary investors like you and me. Metatrader platform makes it real easy to program such type of Expert Advisors.

Recent advancements in computer programming has led to the development of trading platforms that allow an API ( Application Programming Interface) which connects the trader’s system to the dealer’s trade execution structure through the trading platform. So what is autotrading? You must have heard or read a lot about the benefits or advantages of autotrading.

APIs requires programming skills on the part of either the trader or a programmer hired by the trader. But once all of the trading rules and criteria are determined by the trader, programming an API can be relatively straight forward for anyone with programming experience. After the specific trading rules and criteria are determined, the trading strategy is backtested with positive results.

The development of an autotrading system depends more on your trading skills as compared to your programming skills. When this occurs not only trades entered when predetermined technical criteria is met but trade exits in the form of stop loss and take profit rules can also be programmed into the API. Autotrading is almost as simple as flipping a switch to begin the trading process.

This creates an entirely self contained autotrading system. So autotrading can actually execute real trades on current real time market prices. When a predetermined signal emerges, the software actually places a trade automatically. However, before an autotrading system is put on live trading, it is thoroughly backtested and forward tested to make sure the likely success of the autotrading system.

In fact, autotrading is perhaps the best way to achieve it if the trader has optimized and perfected this type of black and white trading strategy that runs devoid of human judgment. Any nondiscretionary technical trading strategy that has clear cut, unambiguous rules is a good candidate for autotrading. Autotrading effectively eliminates all human biases, errors and emotions in the trading process.

There are a number of successful autotrading systems now available in the market for the ordinary retail investors. The best two are FAPT and Ivy Bot.

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